2014 GAYP WTM / Predictions?

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2014 GAYP WTM / Predictions?

Postby Chexhero on Sat Jun 28, 2014 4:18 pm

July 5th-10th, Foggia Italy will be hosting the 2014 GAYP World Title Match between the champion Ron "Suki" King (Barbados) and the challenger Sergio Scarpetta (Italy).

Any predictions? I am predicting Sergio to win 3-2. Sergio has a way of being able to force his opponents into unfamiliar tough positions. In my opinion, his games from the World Qualifier were like a work of art. I think he has enough in his arsenal to beat King this time.
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Re: 2014 GAYP WTM / Predictions?

Postby Alex_Moiseyev on Sun Jun 29, 2014 8:12 am

Score will be lower - 0-0, or 1-0 (either direction). Ron is better cross-aboard player and have more and longer match experience, Sergio is younger and have good knowledge's of published play. I don't have an exact predictions who should win.

In one hands - we always want to see a blood and new Champion, but in other hands - we want to have a RIGHT champion who is a best player.

I wish good luck both of them and best should win !

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Re: 2014 GAYP WTM / Predictions?

Postby Alex_Moiseyev on Sat Jul 05, 2014 5:48 pm

After 1st day of match my prediction did not change. How about yours ? :D
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Re: 2014 GAYP WTM / Predictions?

Postby Chexhero on Sat Jul 05, 2014 9:48 pm

I am going to stay with my original prediction. Sergio is not just going to settle for easy draws, he is a different kind of challenge from that of Kondlo and past challengers. I think we will see a little more than 1 or 2 wins total, but I could be wrong. Either way, it looks like we are in for another exciting match!
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Re: 2014 GAYP WTM / Predictions?

Postby Alex_Moiseyev on Sat Jul 05, 2014 11:01 pm

Chexhero wrote:Either way, it looks like we are in for another exciting match!
That's for sure, totally agree !

But also remember - not only Sergio is different kind of challenger, but Ron also is not the same "Suki" as he used to be 10-15 years ago. The main enemy for Ron is not Sergio, but his own age.
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Re: 2014 GAYP WTM / Predictions?

Postby Ingo_Zachos on Mon Jul 07, 2014 4:25 am

I am not sure if we can classify Sergio as the better bookplayer and Ron as the better crossboard player.

Ron knows a lot of lines and ideas, but he collects them from his practical expirience, not from a book study or from extensive home preparation. He is a walking treasure of theory knowledge, so to speak.

He is able to calculate very long, but not too complicated move trees very well, and he has a great practical endgame expirience.
Also he is a kind of streetfighter that sometimes survives bad positions by a sack full of tricks that are not necessary classical or scientific, but can be very effective if the opponent lacks concentration.

Sergio is studying books and is much more into home preparation. He calculates slowly, but he is more precise in complicated positions (move trees with a lot of branches), where he finds hidden possiblities more often then Ron.

He is an expirienced tournament player, but not a streetfighter, more an elegant fencer.

I think Sergio will outprepare Ron, but Ron may try to avoid home preparation by playing as much different openings as possible that he still knows well enough by his practical expirience.

Ron should not repeat any opening too often, as there is the danger that Sergio even prepares a new line during the match.

If Sergio can get Ron into complicated positions with a thicket of sidelines in it, he has very good chances to score.
As the match is only 24 games and not 40, the age difference will not tell that much as in the 2013 Moiseyev-Borghetti match, where the younger player broke away in the 2nd half of the match, but still it is there.

My prediction: We will see up to 6 games in which a player reaches a winning postion. I would not be surprized if the "score of chances" will end up 4-2 in Sergio's favor, but the match still be tied like in 2012.

For Sergio it is important to keep concentration and to be precise in converting his chances. For Ron, it is important to avoid home preparation and complicated positions, but he has to fight out every tiny advantage.

My prediction based after watching 10 games: Sergio wins by one or two games this time. Ron could not get any tiny advantage so far, but Sergio got him into troubles regulary. At the moment Sergio is very much in control of the match, and Ron needs to find an opening in which Sergio is not well prepared, but that looks harder then it was 2012.
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Re: 2014 GAYP WTM / Predictions?

Postby Chexhero on Mon Jul 07, 2014 7:20 am

I think what Ron needs to do is simply find ways to survive the first half of each game. Last year Ron was able to outplay Sergio in the late mid games-endgame situations. Ron's strategy of playing weaker stuff as a means to confuse Sergio is not working and has failed miserably so far. He may have to change his approach.
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Re: 2014 GAYP WTM / Predictions?

Postby Ingo_Zachos on Mon Jul 07, 2014 11:01 am

Chexhero wrote:I think what Ron needs to do is simply find ways to survive the first half of each game. ...


Objection! He needs more then that, he needs an opening that allows him to reach an endgame/late midgame in which he can avert pressure. Only surviving is not enough as he is trailing.
But agreed that so far he did not find a way to survive the opening in at least two games, which is a bad sign.

Chexhero wrote:... Ron's strategy of playing weaker stuff as a means to confuse Sergio is not working and has failed miserably so far. He may have to change his approach.


Fully agreed!

Match plan so far is a failure. I wonder if he can change his approach now. And if he can find "stronger stuff" so to speak. Today looked like it is very easy to draw him.

Now he is in the same situation that Kondlo was in 2008. He badly needs to create a chance to score, while Sergio can play safety first...
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Re: 2014 GAYP WTM / Predictions?

Postby Alex_Moiseyev on Mon Jul 07, 2014 12:56 pm

Another match strategy Ron can try - "switching, shaking, jumping" - going from one opening to another without much logic :D and hoping for Sergio mistake.

This might be a solution for him if he didn't prepare well and don't have anything special in mind.

I remember Brazil football team coach one time said in TV interview: "All other teams makes as much goals as they can, and we make as much goals as we want!" :D

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